DMAA Details Progress on Predictive Modeling "Buyer's Guide" CHICAGO, IL—At an academic conference here today, the Disease Management Association of America (DMAA) detailed early work on a "buyer's guide" to help clinicians and actuaries assess the value of predictive modeling techniques in disease and case management. At the April 5 to 6 Society of Actuaries/DMAA Predictive Modeling and Risk Adjustment Seminar, at the InterContinental Chicago, DMAA Predictive Modeling Subcommittee Chair Michael Cousins, PhD, summarized progress to date on development of the buyer's guide and sought comment from seminar attendees. The DMAA plans to release the guide at its Dec. 3 to 5 Disease Management Leadership Forum, in Denver. Predictive models analyze a variety of data sources—diagnostic codes from past claims and records of pharmacy use, for example—to forecast risk of disease, expected resource use and care costs. Predictive models serve as an early warning system to ensure at-risk individuals receive appropriate interventions before they develop costly or difficult-to-treat conditions. "Disease management is part of a continuum of care and predictive modeling is another important component on the front end," DMAA Executive Director Tracey Moorhead said. "But with so many models available, knowing which produce the best results has been a challenge. Our guide will shine light on the best practices across all models and give buyers a practical tool for assessing predictive modeling programs in disease and case management." The DMAA guide will give health plans, physicians, disease management organizations, hospitals, government agencies and others a process framework in which to assess the value of predictive models. It will include definitions; guidance on assessing models for "impactibility" and statistical performance; an overview of modeling tools; suggestions on considerations for build vs. buy decisions; and a resource listing. The DMAA is a nonprofit, voluntary membership association representing all stakeholders in disease management and care coordination. Through advocacy targeting the health care industry, government agencies, employers and the general public, the DMAA promotes the important role disease management and care coordination play in improving care quality and outcomes for people with chronic conditions. Visit the DMAA online at www.dmaa.org. # # # |
